Abstract

This paper examines the evolving economic and political status of Burundi within the East African Community (EAC) context. Once characterized as a fragile, post-conflict state with a largely subsistence-based economy, Burundi has demonstrated notable diplomatic ascendancy through its assumption of the African Union chairmanship in 2026. Simultaneously, the country is pursuing transformative infrastructure projects—including its first railway connection to Tanzania—and attracting significant foreign investment interest from major African industrial players. However, these developments occur against a backdrop of persistent structural economic challenges, including a large informal sector, outdated economic data methodologies, and one of the world’s lowest GDP per capita figures. This paper argues that Burundi is currently navigating a critical transition, leveraging regional integration and diplomatic visibility to overcome its historical marginalization, while still confronting the deep-seated governance and economic vulnerabilities that have defined its post-independence trajectory.

Keywords: Burundi, East African Community, regional integration, political economy, infrastructure development, African Union

1. Introduction

The Republic of Burundi occupies a paradoxical position within East Africa. As a founding member of the East African Community (EAC) revived in 2007, it represents one of the region’s smallest economies yet holds significant geopolitical importance due to its location in the African Great Lakes region. Landlocked, densely populated, and possessing limited natural resource wealth compared to its neighbors, Burundi has historically been characterized as the EAC’s peripheral state—a recipient of regional peacekeeping attention rather than an active shaper of regional economic architecture.

This characterization, however, requires substantial reconsideration in light of developments in 2025-2026. Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye assumed the rotating chairmanship of the African Union in February 2026 , placing the country at the center of continental diplomatic coordination. Domestically, the government has launched ambitious infrastructure initiatives, including a $2.1 billion railway project connecting to Tanzania’s Central Corridor , while attracting high-profile investment delegations from Africa’s largest industrial conglomerates .

This paper assesses Burundi’s contemporary economic and political status through three analytical lenses: first, its macroeconomic structure and developmental challenges; second, its infrastructure and investment landscape; and third, its regional and continental political positioning. The analysis draws on recent investment data, policy frameworks, infrastructure project documentation, and diplomatic developments to construct a comprehensive picture of Burundi’s trajectory within East Africa.

2. The Economic Foundation: Structure, Scale, and Measurement Challenges

2.1 Macroeconomic Overview

Understanding Burundi’s economic status requires grappling with significant data limitations that obscure the country’s true productive capacity. According to World Economics research, Burundi’s GDP estimates suffer from two critical methodological constraints: an outdated GDP base year (approximately twenty years old) and the exclusion of substantial informal economic activity . When adjusted for these factors, the estimated size of Burundi’s economy increases considerably, though precise quantification remains challenging.

The informal economy represents a particularly significant component of Burundian economic life. Research estimates suggest that approximately 40% of Burundi’s economic activity occurs outside the formal sector . This figure has profound implications for understanding both the economy’s true size and the effectiveness of policy interventions. A large informal sector typically indicates high barriers to formalization—including regulatory complexity, tax burdens, and limited access to formal financial services—while simultaneously representing economic resilience and entrepreneurial adaptation in a constrained environment.

In per capita terms, Burundi’s economic indicators remain sobering even after accounting for informal activity. GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity stood at $835.62 in 2024, approximately 5% of the world average . This figure places Burundi among the world’s poorest countries, a classification reinforced by World Bank assessments cited in recent infrastructure reporting . The trajectory, however, shows modest improvement: from a record low of $828.58 in 2023 to the 2024 figure, with projections suggesting continued gradual increases to approximately $869 by year-end 2026 .

2.2 Sectoral Composition and Constraints

Agriculture constitutes the foundation of Burundi’s economy, employing the vast majority of the workforce and generating the bulk of export earnings. However, as noted in UNCTAD’s Investment Policy Review, this sector is characterized by “low and declining productivity” . This productivity challenge stems from multiple factors: small landholding sizes resulting from extreme population density, limited access to improved inputs and techniques, soil degradation, and vulnerability to climate variability. The agricultural sector’s weakness has cascading effects throughout the economy, limiting rural incomes, constraining food security, and reducing the domestic resource base for industrial development.

The industrial sector remains underdeveloped, constrained by infrastructure deficits, limited access to financing, and a business environment that prospective investors describe as requiring “in-depth reforms” . Manufacturing contributes modestly to GDP and exports, though opportunities exist in agro-processing and light manufacturing for regional markets. The mining sector holds significant potential—with identified deposits of nickel, iron, and platinum—but has historically been underexploited due to infrastructure limitations and investment shortfalls .

The services sector, including telecommunications, finance, and trade, has shown greater dynamism but operates from a low base and faces constraints similar to those affecting industry. The informal nature of much service sector activity limits tax revenues and regulatory oversight while providing essential livelihoods for urban populations.

2.3 The Investment Climate

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Burundi have historically been limited, reflecting the combined impact of political instability, infrastructure deficits, and regulatory challenges. UNCTAD’s Investment Policy Review, conducted following Burundi’s post-conflict stabilization, identified multiple barriers to investment attraction while noting that “conditions to attract higher levels are gradually put in place and opportunities are materializing” .

The creation of an investment promotion agency represents an institutional response to these challenges, signaling government recognition that FDI attraction requires dedicated institutional capacity and strategic approach. The Investment Policy Review’s recommendations—organized around six pillars including peace consolidation, competitiveness enhancement, legal framework modernization, institutional strengthening, information quality improvement, and sectoral opportunity exploitation—provide a roadmap for investment climate reform .

Significantly, these recommendations explicitly link investment climate reform to Burundi’s East African Community membership, calling for harmonization with “East African Community initiatives” . This regional dimension is crucial: as EAC integration advances, Burundi’s investment climate becomes increasingly important not only for domestic development but for the functioning of the regional market. Inconsistent regulations, inadequate infrastructure, or political instability in Burundi affect the entire EAC’s economic coherence.

3. Infrastructure Transformation and Investment Mobilization

3.1 The Central Corridor Railway: A Paradigm Shift

The most significant economic development in Burundi’s recent history is the February 2026 launch of construction for the country’s first railway, a 282-kilometer standard gauge line connecting Musongati to Tanzania’s rail network and, ultimately, to the Port of Dar es Salaam . This project, with an estimated cost of $2.1 billion for Burundi’s portion, represents an infrastructure investment of a scale unprecedented in the country’s history.

President Ndayishimiye’s characterization of the railway as “truly the beginning of a robust development for Burundi” reflects the transformative potential attributed to the project . For a landlocked economy, transport costs constitute a critical determinant of international competitiveness. The current reliance on truck transport—costly, slow, and vulnerable to disruption—has historically constrained Burundi’s ability to participate in regional and global markets. The railway promises to fundamentally alter this calculus.

Flory Okendju, executive secretary of the Central Corridor, emphasizes that the railway will “profoundly transform regional transport, reduce delays and transport costs” . The projected economic impacts are substantial: Burundian Prime Minister Nestor Ntahontuye estimates monthly savings of $36 million on import and export transportation costs once the railway becomes operational . For a cash-strapped economy, such savings represent a meaningful fiscal stimulus and competitiveness improvement.

The railway’s significance extends beyond transport cost reduction. President Ndayishimiye explicitly linked the project to mining sector development, noting that previous inquiries from mining companies about mineral exploitation were met with an inability to answer questions about evacuation routes for extracted ores . By providing a viable export corridor for bulk commodities, the railway unlocks the commercial viability of Burundi’s nickel, iron, and platinum deposits—potentially transforming the country’s economic structure from agricultural dependence to resource-based industrialization.

The project’s financing structure is equally significant. Funding from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Tanzanian bank CRDB, with construction management by Chinese companies , illustrates the multi-lateral, multi-national cooperation underpinning contemporary infrastructure development in East Africa. This financing model—blending regional development finance, national banking, and Chinese construction expertise—reflects the complex partnerships required for transformative infrastructure in resource-constrained settings.

3.2 High-Profile Investment Interest

Complementing the railway project is evidence of growing investor interest in Burundi’s economic potential. In February 2026, African industrialist Aliko Dangote visited Burundi for high-level talks with President Ndayishimiye, accompanied by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo . The visit, described as both “diplomatic and economic in scope,” resulted in the formation of joint technical teams to identify priority sectors and develop viable investment projects.

Dangote’s stated focus—”investing heavily in the African continent, not anywhere else, and so Burundi is part and parcel of that African region” —signals a significant repositioning of Burundi in continental investment perceptions. The sectors identified for potential cooperation—stable minerals, power generation, agriculture, cement manufacturing, and infrastructure development—align closely with Burundi’s stated development priorities and the opportunities identified in the Investment Policy Review .

Observers characterize the engagement as “a landmark moment—one which positions Burundi as a reputable destination for African mega-investors and integrates the nation more firmly into Dangote’s continental expansion strategy” . This framing captures the dual significance of the visit: both as concrete investment exploration and as symbolic endorsement of Burundi’s investment climate improvements.

3.3 Regional Integration and Digital Economy Participation

Infrastructure transformation extends beyond physical connectivity to include digital economy integration. In January 2026, Burundi hosted a consultative meeting on the development of the East African Community Strategy on Artificial Intelligence, organized by the East African Commission on Science and Technology (EASTECO) . The meeting’s objective—”the joint development of the East African Community’s regional strategy” on AI—illustrates Burundi’s participation in shaping the region’s digital future.

Permanent Secretary Séverin Mbarubukeye, opening the meeting, articulated Burundi’s commitment to supporting “all related projects and programs” and ensuring “their effective implementation” . The AI strategy’s intended applications—promoting agriculture, health, education, environment, finance, and public services—touch every sector of Burundian economic life. Moreover, the strategy’s attention to risk management—addressing “algorithmic bias, abusive surveillance and digital inequality” while improving public service delivery and facilitating e-commerce —reflects a sophisticated understanding of technology’s dual potential.

Burundi’s hosting of this regional consultation demonstrates active engagement with EAC institutional processes and recognition that digital economy development requires coordinated regional approaches. For a small economy, participation in regional digital policy frameworks offers opportunities to leverage larger partners’ investments and expertise while ensuring national interests are represented in regional standard-setting.

4. Political Status: From Crisis Management to Continental Leadership

4.1 The African Union Chairmanship

Burundi’s assumption of the African Union chairmanship in February 2026 represents the most significant elevation of the country’s diplomatic standing since its return to constitutional order following the 2005-2015 transition. President Ndayishimiye took over the rotational presidency from Angolan President Joao Lourenco at the 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government in Addis Ababa .

The context for Burundi’s chairmanship is challenging. Ndayishimiye acknowledged in his acceptance speech that Angola was “passing the torch to Burundi amid unrelenting security challenges, the rise of unilateral approaches, growing economic tensions, and the impact of climate change across the continent” . This characterization reflects the complex environment in which the AU operates—conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, tensions over international system reform, and the continent’s vulnerability to global economic and environmental pressures.

Burundi’s approach to the chairmanship, as articulated by Ndayishimiye, emphasizes “a spirit of listening, impartiality and cooperation with all, and for the good of all member states,” with the intention to “work with all AU members to reach common consensus” . The president also articulated an external-facing objective: to “strengthen Africa’s voice on the international arena and actively contribute to building a fairer, more balanced and inclusive world” .

The chairmanship provides Burundi with a platform to shape continental agendas and build diplomatic capital that can translate into concrete benefits—whether through enhanced development partner engagement, support for infrastructure financing, or strengthened regional positioning. It also subjects Burundi to intensified scrutiny, as the chairing country must demonstrate capacity to manage continental processes while addressing its domestic challenges.

4.2 Regional Political Dynamics and Historical Tensions

Burundi’s elevated continental profile occurs against a backdrop of complex regional political dynamics. The country’s trajectory since the 2015 political crisis—triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third-term candidacy—has been characterized by contested legitimacy, international sanctions, and strained relations with some regional and Western partners. While the security situation has stabilized significantly under Ndayishimiye’s presidency (beginning in 2020 following Nkurunziza’s death), underlying political tensions persist.

The East African Community’s engagement with Burundi has historically focused on conflict mediation. The Inter-Burundian Dialogue, facilitated by former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa under EAC auspices, sought to bring government and opposition actors into negotiations . However, this process encountered fundamental obstacles, including the government’s refusal to participate in dialogue sessions that included opposition figures it accused of involvement in the 2015 coup attempt .

Civil society critiques of regional engagement have highlighted the EAC’s perceived inability to resolve the crisis. Human rights activists have documented significant human costs—”more than 2,000 human lives, forced at least 500,000 people into exile, made hundreds of Burundians victims of enforced disappearances and led to arbitrary arrests of more than 8,000 people” according to one account . These critiques reflect the deep scars left by the crisis and the ongoing challenges of reconciliation and accountability.

The tension between regional mediation and government sovereignty concerns illustrates the difficulty of balancing conflict resolution with respect for national political processes. Some experts have called for EAC sanctions against the government to compel negotiation participation , while others emphasize the need for dialogue processes that address underlying grievances without preconditions.

4.3 Domestic Governance and Development Challenges

Beyond regional and continental diplomacy, Burundi’s political status is fundamentally shaped by domestic governance performance. The Investment Policy Review’s emphasis on “consolidating peace and political stability” as the first pillar of investment climate reform  reflects the intimate connection between political governance and economic development. Investors require predictable rules, security of persons and property, and confidence in institutional durability—all dependent on effective governance.

Contemporary governance challenges include ensuring security sector professionalism, managing political competition, protecting human rights, and delivering basic services to a rapidly growing population. Civil society organizations continue to document concerns including restrictions on political space, treatment of opposition figures, and socioeconomic deprivations including “shortage of fuel, power cut, lack of currency and medicines, food, transport related issues” .

The government’s development agenda, articulated through infrastructure investments and investment promotion efforts, emphasizes economic transformation as the pathway to improved living standards. The railway project, Dangote investment discussions, and digital economy engagement all reflect a strategy focused on attracting external resources and expertise to accelerate development. Whether this strategy can generate inclusive growth that addresses the concerns of marginalized populations and opposition constituencies remains an open question.

5. Burundi in Regional Context: Comparative Positioning

5.1 Economic Comparison within the EAC

Situating Burundi within the East African Community reveals stark economic disparities. While precise cross-country comparisons are complicated by differing data methodologies and informal sector sizes, Burundi consistently ranks as the EAC’s smallest economy by total GDP and among the lowest in per capita terms.

Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national statistics (approximations for comparative context)

This comparative positioning has significant implications for Burundi’s regional engagement. As a small economy, Burundi stands to benefit disproportionately from regional integration—access to larger markets, infrastructure connectivity, and regulatory harmonization can amplify its limited domestic scale. Simultaneously, the country must guard against asymmetric integration that benefits larger partners more substantially or exposes domestic producers to competition they cannot withstand.

5.2 Regional Integration Participation

Burundi’s engagement with EAC institutions extends beyond economic integration to include political, security, and social dimensions. The country participates in EAC decision-making structures, hosts regional meetings as illustrated by the AI strategy consultation , and contributes to regional peace and security discussions.

The 2007 establishment of the East African Commission on Science and Technology (EASTECO) as an EAC institution, with its mandate to “coordinate and promote science, technology, and innovation among partner states” , created institutional architecture for regional cooperation in precisely the areas where Burundi seeks to develop capacity. Burundi’s hosting of the AI strategy consultation demonstrates commitment to utilizing this architecture.

However, regional integration also generates tensions. The Inter-Burundian Dialogue process placed the EAC in a mediation role that inevitably created friction with the government . Balancing sovereignty concerns with regional conflict resolution mechanisms remains a challenge not unique to Burundi but particularly acute given the country’s recent political history.

5.3 The DRC Dimension and Great Lakes Dynamics

Any assessment of Burundi’s regional status must consider its position within the broader Great Lakes region, particularly its relationship with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The planned railway extension to Uvira and Kindu in eastern DRC  illustrates the economic interconnectivity of these neighbors. For Burundi, eastern DRC represents both a potential market and a source of competition, while also posing security challenges given the region’s volatility.

The DRC’s own EAC accession (formalized in 2022) has reshaped regional dynamics, bringing a massive economy and complex conflict systems into the Community. For Burundi, this creates both opportunities—expanded market access, coordinated infrastructure planning—and challenges—potential marginalization within a larger, more complex regional bloc.

6. Challenges and Vulnerabilities

6.1 Structural Economic Constraints

Despite recent positive developments, Burundi’s economy confronts profound structural challenges. Agricultural productivity remains low and declining , limiting rural incomes and food security. The industrial base is underdeveloped, with limited manufacturing capacity and value addition. Infrastructure deficits, while being addressed through projects like the railway, remain severe—energy access, road connectivity, and digital infrastructure all require massive investment.

The business environment, despite reform efforts, continues to constrain private sector development. UNCTAD’s assessment of an “underdeveloped” private sector requiring “in-depth reforms”  reflects persistent challenges including regulatory complexity, corruption, limited access to finance, and weak contract enforcement. These constraints disproportionately affect small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of most developing economies.

Human capital deficits compound these challenges. Decades of conflict and underinvestment have affected education and health outcomes, limiting the skilled workforce available for economic transformation. The Investment Policy Review’s observation that “the conflict has affected considerably human capital and infrastructures”  understates the magnitude of the challenge—rebuilding human capital requires generational investment.

6.2 Political and Governance Risks

Political stability, while improved since the 2015-2018 crisis, remains fragile. The Investment Policy Review’s characterization of the “security situation” as “fragile” and “public institutions” as lacking “appropriate resources”  captures the ongoing vulnerabilities. Political competition, civil-military relations, and management of dissent all require careful navigation.

Governance challenges extend to corruption and institutional capacity. Public confidence in institutions, essential for both political legitimacy and economic investment, depends on demonstrated integrity and effectiveness. The presence of civil society organizations focused on anti-corruption  indicates both citizen vigilance and the perceived seriousness of corruption challenges.

6.3 External Vulnerabilities

As a small, open economy, Burundi remains vulnerable to external shocks. Commodity price fluctuations affect export earnings; climate variability impacts agricultural production; global economic conditions influence aid flows and investment decisions. The COVID-19 pandemic’s economic effects, while not detailed in recent sources, illustrated the magnitude of these vulnerabilities.

Relations with development partners constitute another external vulnerability. While the African Union chairmanship elevates Burundi’s diplomatic standing, relationships with traditional donors—including European countries that imposed sanctions during the 2015-2018 crisis—require careful management. Balancing diversification of partnerships (including with emerging economies and continental investors) while maintaining constructive engagement with traditional partners represents a significant diplomatic challenge.

7. Opportunities and Future Trajectories

7.1 Infrastructure-Led Transformation

The railway project offers the most concrete opportunity for economic transformation. If successfully implemented and complemented by necessary investments in energy, telecommunications, and related infrastructure, the railway could fundamentally alter Burundi’s economic geography and competitive position. The projected $36 million monthly savings on transport costs  would provide substantial fiscal space and competitiveness improvement.

Mining sector development, enabled by the railway, could diversify exports and generate government revenues for social investment. The presence of nickel, iron, and platinum deposits  offers potential for resource-based industrialization, though realizing this potential requires careful management of environmental, social, and governance challenges associated with extractive industries.

7.2 Agricultural Modernization

Agriculture, while currently characterized by low productivity, also presents significant opportunities. Regional market integration, agro-processing investment, and adoption of improved technologies could transform the sector. The AI strategy’s focus on agricultural applications  suggests recognition that digital technologies can contribute to productivity gains.

Investment interest from actors like Dangote, with expertise in agro-processing and extensive regional distribution networks , could accelerate agricultural modernization. However, ensuring that smallholder farmers benefit from these investments requires deliberate policy attention to inclusive business models and value chain governance.

7.3 Diplomatic Leverage

The African Union chairmanship provides Burundi with diplomatic leverage that can be deployed to advance national interests. The platform enables agenda-setting, relationship-building, and advocacy for Burundi’s priorities—whether infrastructure financing, climate adaptation support, or regional integration deepening. Skillful use of this platform could translate diplomatic visibility into concrete development gains.

The chairmanship also offers opportunities to reshape international perceptions of Burundi. By demonstrating capacity to manage continental processes and contribute to African solutions to African challenges, Burundi can counter narratives focused solely on its internal difficulties and position itself as a constructive regional and continental actor.

7.4 Regional Integration Deepening

Continued deepening of EAC integration offers Burundi access to larger markets, coordinated infrastructure development, and regulatory harmonization that reduces transaction costs. The AI strategy development process  illustrates how regional cooperation can extend into new domains, enabling smaller countries to participate in shaping frameworks for emerging technologies.

However, realizing integration benefits requires proactive engagement—ensuring that Burundi’s interests are represented in regional decision-making, that domestic policies align with regional frameworks, and that national capacity exists to implement regional commitments. The Permanent Secretary’s assurance that Burundi is “ready to support all related projects and programs and to ensure their effective implementation”  signals awareness of this implementation imperative.

8. Conclusion

Burundi’s economic and political status in East Africa reflects a complex interplay of deep-seated structural challenges and emerging transformative opportunities. Economically, the country remains among the world’s poorest, with a large informal sector, low agricultural productivity, and underdeveloped industrial base. Infrastructure deficits, human capital constraints, and a challenging business environment have historically limited investment and growth.

However, recent developments suggest the possibility of fundamental repositioning. The launch of Burundi’s first railway, connecting to Tanzania’s Central Corridor and ultimately to the Port of Dar es Salaam, promises to reduce transport costs dramatically and unlock mining sector development. High-profile investment interest from Africa’s largest industrial conglomerate signals improving investor perceptions. Active engagement with EAC digital economy initiatives demonstrates commitment to participating in shaping the region’s technological future.

Politically, Burundi’s assumption of the African Union chairmanship represents the most significant elevation of its diplomatic standing in decades. This platform provides opportunities to shape continental agendas, build diplomatic capital, and reshape international perceptions. However, it also subjects Burundi to intensified scrutiny and requires skillful navigation of complex regional and continental dynamics.

The trajectory Burundi follows will depend on multiple factors: successful implementation of infrastructure projects, maintenance of political stability, effective management of investment relationships, and skillful deployment of diplomatic leverage. Regional integration offers frameworks for cooperation that can amplify Burundi’s limited domestic scale, but realizing integration benefits requires sustained commitment to policy harmonization and institutional development.

For the East African Community, Burundi’s evolution matters fundamentally. A stable, growing Burundi strengthens the region’s coherence and economic potential. A fragile, conflict-affected Burundi imposes costs on neighbors through refugee flows, security spillovers, and constrained regional integration. The region therefore has compelling interests in Burundi’s success—interests that align with those of Burundians themselves.

The coming years will test whether the promising developments of 2025-2026 can be sustained and translated into tangible improvements in living standards for Burundi’s population. If successful, Burundi could transition from peripheral status to become an integral contributor to East African prosperity and integration. If not, the country risks remaining the region’s vulnerability—a reminder that political stability and economic transformation require sustained commitment from national leadership and regional partners alike.

References

1. UNCTAD Investment Policy Hub. “Investment Policy Review of Burundi.” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

2. BERNAMA. “President of Burundi Becomes Chairperson of African Union.” February 14, 2026.

3. Ministère des Affaires Etrangères du Burundi. “Opening of the Consultative Meeting on the Development of the East African Community Strategy on Artificial Intelligence.” January 22, 2026.

4. Newswatch (Nigeria). “Dangote Explores Investment Opportunities in Burundi, Meets with President.” February 10, 2026.

5. World Economics. “Burundi GDP | 2026 | 2026-2030.” World Economics Research, London.

6. BERNAMA. “Burundi Assumes Rotating Chairmanship of African Union.” February 15, 2026.

7. Iwacu Burundi. “Mkapa calls for extraordinary EAC summit to boost inter-Burundian dialogue.”

8. New Age BD. “Burundi lays foundation for country’s first railway linking to Tanzania.” February 11, 2026.

9. Trading Economics. “Burundi GDP per capita PPP.” World Bank data.

10. Iwacu Burundi. “Civil Society unsatisfied with outcomes of 18th EAC summit.”