Abstract

This paper examines the contemporary economic and political status of Morocco within the North African regional context as of early 2026, drawing upon International Monetary Fund Article IV consultation findings, Moroccan official data, diplomatic reporting, and strategic analysis from regional policy institutes. The research identifies Morocco’s emergence as a distinctive regional model characterized by macroeconomic stability, strategic diversification across economic and diplomatic domains, and the consolidation of its position as the West’s primary security partner in North Africa. This paper argues that Morocco’s regional influence derives from three interconnected pillars: sustained economic growth driven by non-agricultural sectors and anchored by credible fiscal policy; a foreign policy realignment that has deepened partnerships with Europe, normalized relations with Israel, and secured international consensus on Western Sahara; and domestic political management that balances authoritarian governance with institutional responsiveness to social pressures. The analysis proceeds in three main sections: economic performance and structural transformation; domestic political dynamics and governance; and foreign policy positioning, including the Western Sahara dispute, Euro-Mediterranean relations, and the strategic realignment with Israel. The conclusion assesses Morocco’s regional standing and the sustainability of its current trajectory.

Keywords: Morocco, North Africa, economic diversification, strategic realignment, Western Sahara, Euro-Mediterranean relations

1. Introduction

Morocco occupies a distinctive and increasingly prominent position in the North African geopolitical landscape. As a constitutional monarchy with deep historical roots, a diversified economy that has weathered regional turbulence, and a foreign policy that has successfully leveraged geostrategic assets to secure international support for core national interests, Morocco presents a model of gradualist modernization and strategic adaptation.

This paper provides a deeply researched analysis of Morocco’s economic and political status as of early 2026, drawing upon the IMF’s February 2026 Article IV consultation findings, Moroccan High Commission for Planning data, diplomatic reporting from the Morocco-EU Association Council, strategic analysis from the Stimson Center and other policy institutes, and regional news coverage. The timing is significant: early 2026 has witnessed the release of strong economic growth figures, a major diplomatic breakthrough with the European Union on Western Sahara, the signing of a comprehensive military cooperation agreement with Israel, and Morocco’s assumption of the rotating presidency of the UN Conference on Disarmament—developments that collectively illuminate the trajectory of contemporary Morocco.

The analysis proceeds in three main sections. Section two examines Morocco’s economic performance and structural characteristics, analyzing the growth acceleration driven by agriculture and non-agricultural sectors, fiscal consolidation, external balances, and the ongoing reform agenda emphasized by the IMF. Section three analyses the domestic political landscape, including the monarchy’s management of social pressures, the evolution of civil-military relations, media governance debates, and the challenges posed by youth mobilization. Section four addresses Morocco’s foreign policy and regional role, examining the Western Sahara diplomatic breakthrough with the EU, the strategic realignment with Israel and its implications for Maghreb security, relations with European and global powers, and positioning within African and multilateral forums. The conclusion synthesizes these findings to assess Morocco’s overall regional standing and the sustainability of its current trajectory.

2. Economic Status: Diversification, Stability, and Structural Reform

2.1 Growth Acceleration and Sectoral Dynamics

The Moroccan economy has demonstrated robust growth momentum, with performance exceeding regional peers and justifying upward revisions to official forecasts. According to the IMF’s February 2026 Article IV consultation, economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 4.9 per cent, boosted by strong performance in agriculture, construction, and services . This momentum is expected to continue in 2026, with growth projected at 4.9 per cent, supported by public and private investment and solid agriculture output following exceptional rainfall .

The Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP) offers a slightly more optimistic forecast, projecting growth of 5 per cent in 2026, up from 4.7 per cent in 2025 . According to the HCP, this would mark the fourth consecutive year of accelerating growth . The modest discrepancy between IMF and HCP projections reflects differing assumptions about agricultural performance, which remains a critical variable.

The sectoral composition of growth reveals an economy undergoing significant structural transformation. Agriculture is expected to grow by 10.4 per cent in 2026 compared to 4.5 per cent in 2025, helped by improved rainfall, better water reserves, a rebound in livestock, and higher cereal production . The primary sector overall should grow by 10 per cent, contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth . However, investment fund analysis cautions that agriculture “due to climatic reasons remains the factor of uncertainty affecting overall growth” .

Non-agricultural activities are forecast to grow by 4.3 per cent, led by industry, construction, and market services, supported by major investment projects . The secondary sector should grow by approximately 4.2 per cent in 2026, while the tertiary sector is expected to expand by 4.3 per cent, contributing 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth . Investment analysts note that “industry, construction, logistics, and services will be the main drivers of economic growth” .

The tourism sector has staged a remarkable recovery, with hotel and food services posting growth of nearly 9.7 per cent . This expansion is supported by major tourist arrival numbers, solid travel revenues, and efforts to strengthen Morocco’s promotion as a destination . Transport and storage services have also benefited from continued growth in rail traffic, increased domestic and international air traffic, and steady maritime transport activity .

The trade and repair sector, contributing 19.1 per cent to average tertiary added value over 2014-2024, is expected to grow by approximately 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.6 per cent in 2026, benefiting from strong national economic momentum and robust domestic demand .

2.2 Fiscal Consolidation and Revenue Performance

Morocco’s fiscal position has shown marked improvement, reflecting the cumulative impact of tax policy reforms and enhanced revenue administration. The IMF reports that “tax revenues reached 24.6 percent of GDP in 2025, a significant increase over the last two years stemming from recent tax policy reforms and improved revenue administration” .

The central government deficit narrowed to 3.5 per cent of GDP, compared to 3.8 per cent projected in the 2025 Budget, even as part of the revenue overperformance financed additional investment and state-owned enterprise transfers . The government’s 2026 budget target of 3 per cent deficit demonstrates policy continuity and commitment to fiscal consolidation .

The IMF has encouraged the authorities to use any revenue overperformance to “further strengthen fiscal buffers,” noting that this “could also help create space for more investment in human capital” . Chinese analysis of the IMF report similarly notes the recommendation to increase investment in health and education .

Progress in strengthening the medium-term budget framework (MTFF) and public investment management has been welcomed by the IMF, including steps toward the adoption of a new fiscal rule . However, continued efforts are needed to “identify, quantify, and monitor fiscal risks systematically—particularly those related to SOEs—with greater reporting in the MTFF” .

2.3 Inflation and Monetary Policy

Inflation dynamics have been exceptionally favourable, providing policy space for monetary accommodation. Headline inflation averaged 0.8 per cent in 2025, reflecting low food inflation, and is projected to gradually rise toward 2 per cent by mid-2027, supported by earlier policy rate cuts and strengthening growth momentum .

The IMF assesses that “with inflation well anchored, the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance remains appropriate, and monetary policy should continue to be guided by incoming data” . The Fund encourages Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to “continue its transition to greater exchange rate flexibility as it progresses toward an inflation targeting (IT) framework, with clear communication on sequencing and priorities between policy objectives” .

BAM’s carefully sequenced non-performing loan reforms have been welcomed, and the IMF encourages “efforts to continue strengthening the financial system’s resilience to emerging risks” . Investment analysts note that “inflationary pressures are under control and economic policy credibility is good” .

2.4 External Sector: Resilience Amid Challenges

Morocco’s external position exhibits both strengths and vulnerabilities. Given the high import content of scaled-up public investment, the current account deficit is expected to widen moderately, notwithstanding higher tourism receipts, financed in part by higher foreign direct investment .

Investment analysis indicates that “tourism revenues and remittances continue to buffer the structural trade deficit” and that “foreign exchange reserves can cover about five months of goods and services imports, indicating low balance of payments risks” . However, weather conditions, the European economic situation, and commodity price volatility remain factors to monitor .

The IMF assesses that “international reserves levels remain adequate” and that risks to the outlook are “broadly balanced, with global risks stemming from a potential Euro Area slowdown and commodity price volatility” . This assessment reflects Morocco’s deep integration with European markets and its vulnerability to external shocks beyond domestic control.

2.5 Investment Climate and Private Sector Development

A central theme of Morocco’s economic strategy is the transition toward private sector-led growth and job creation. The IMF emphasizes that “sustainable job creation remains a pressing priority, calling for a more favorable business climate, more dynamic private sector, and further reforms in the labor market” .

The government has implemented targeted financial and technical assistance to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) through multiple channels: the Investment Charter, regional investment centers, the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and the new charter for MSMEs . The IMF encourages “close monitoring of employment outcomes” to ensure these programs deliver tangible results.

The Job Plan 2030 provides a comprehensive framework to reduce unemployment through modernized active labor-market policies and expanded support for youth without diplomas, with complementary measures to address skills mismatches encouraged by the Fund .

Accelerating state-owned enterprise reforms “to improve performance and governance is critical to strengthen competition and ensure market neutrality between public and private firms” . This reform agenda addresses long-standing concerns about the level playing field between public and private enterprises.

The Stimson Center’s February 2026 regional outlook highlights Morocco’s success in attracting new aerospace and auto supply-chain investments , with specific mention of Safran’s decision to open a landing gear plant in Morocco . These investments demonstrate the country’s growing integration into global manufacturing value chains.

2.6 Human Capital and Social Development

Access to education, health services, and social protection for the most vulnerable continues to improve, and the IMF staff “encourages an acceleration of ongoing reform strategies in these sectors” . The Fund emphasizes that “taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by the acceleration of public investment requires carefully managing risks—including fiscal and economic risks—and ensuring greater investment in human capital, in particular health and education” .

This focus on human capital reflects recognition that sustained growth and diversification ultimately depend on the quality of the workforce. While Morocco has made significant investments in infrastructure and productive capacity, the IMF’s emphasis on health and education spending points to an area requiring continued attention.

3. Political Status: Managed Stability and Institutional Evolution

3.1 The Monarchy and Constitutional Framework

Morocco’s political system is defined by the centrality of the monarchy, which has demonstrated remarkable adaptability in managing political transitions and social pressures. The constitutional framework established by the 2011 reforms, approved by referendum in the wake of Arab Spring protests, created a hybrid system combining monarchical prerogatives with enhanced parliamentary and governmental powers.

The 2011 Constitution, as articulated in King Mohammed VI’s address to the nation, enshrined principles of separation of powers, strengthened the position of the Head of Government (elevated from Prime Minister), and expanded parliamentary authority . The King described the new charter as “the bedrock of the special Moroccan democratic development model – a new historical bond between the Throne and the people” .

Key constitutional provisions established the inviolability of the King’s person, his role as Commander of the Faithful and Head of State, while entrusting executive authority to a government led by the Head of Government appointed from the party winning legislative elections . This distribution of authority creates what analysts term a “dual executive” system, with the monarchy retaining significant powers in security, foreign policy, and religious affairs while delegating day-to-day governance to elected officials.

The constitutional framework has proven durable, providing institutional mechanisms for managing political competition and social demands. The monarchy’s legitimacy derives from historical continuity, religious authority, and its role as arbiter above partisan competition.

3.2 Civil-Military Relations and Security Governance

Civil-military relations in Morocco are characterized by strong institutional cohesion and professional autonomy within a framework of monarchical control. The King serves as Supreme Commander and Chief of Staff of the Royal Armed Forces, with appointment powers in military positions remaining an “exclusive, sovereign prerogative” .

The military’s professionalism and its separation from partisan politics have insulated it from the factionalization observed in other regional states. The armed forces focus on external defence, border security, and participation in international peacekeeping, while internal security is managed by paramilitary forces and police under civilian ministry oversight.

This configuration has enabled Morocco to maintain security stability even as regional turbulence has affected neighbours. The country’s counterterrorism expertise has become a valued asset in international security cooperation, with the EU explicitly recognizing “Morocco’s recognised expertise in combating terrorism and extremism, noting its increasing importance as a security partner extending beyond North Africa” .

3.3 Media Governance and Civil Society

The Moroccan media landscape operates within parameters defined by constitutional guarantees and practical constraints. The 2011 Constitution affirms “freedom of the press and of expression and opinion, as well as the right to access information and to submit petitions” . However, the implementation of these guarantees has been subject to ongoing contestation.

A significant February 2026 development was the government’s withdrawal of a proposed decree law creating a special committee to manage the press and publishing sector . Minister of Youth, Culture and Communication Mehdi Bensaid withdrew draft decree law No. 2.26.135 following discussions that concluded there was “no urgent need to establish the committee” .

The proposed mechanism had sparked “professional and legal debate, with journalists questioning the necessity of transitional bodies at the current stage and voicing concern over interference in the profession’s self regulation” . Sources indicated the government rejected the draft decree, while a source close to Bensaid said the minister himself decided to withdraw it .

Bensaid explained that withdrawal became “inevitable” once discussion shifted to the political level, stressing that decree laws are justified only in urgent situations . The minister added that press council reform and a separate draft law on professional journalists are expected to complete their legislative process by late April or early May, paving the way for forming a new National Press Council .

This episode illustrates the Moroccan governance style: controversial proposals may be advanced, tested against professional and public reaction, and withdrawn or modified in response to feedback. While critics may view this as tactical flexibility rather than principled commitment to press freedom, the outcome—withdrawal of a measure opposed by journalists—suggests some responsiveness to professional concerns.

3.4 Youth Mobilization and Social Pressures

The most significant domestic political challenge facing Moroccan authorities is the mobilization of youth expressing discontent with social conditions and government priorities. Analysis from Ynetnews describes a decentralized youth movement known as “Gen Z 212” that has organized through encrypted platforms such as Discord to protest government spending priorities .

The movement, now numbering more than 250,000 members, uses the slogan “no justice there without justice here” to criticize billions invested in state-of-the-art sports infrastructure and defence while public health services lag . It was catalyzed by the deaths of eight pregnant women at an under-resourced hospital in Agadir, crystallizing perceptions of a “two-speed Morocco” .

This mobilization reflects broader tensions in Moroccan development: impressive macroeconomic indicators and flagship investments coexist with persistent gaps in public service delivery, particularly in health and education. The IMF’s emphasis on increased investment in human capital directly addresses these concerns.

The monarchy has shown ability to manage this friction through a combination of responsiveness and strategic framing. The government has emphasized that the Israeli partnership, a target of some criticism, serves national security and the defence of the “sacred cause” of the Sahara . While protests continue, the state has maintained its policy trajectory while seeking to address specific grievances.

3.5 Political Parties and Electoral Politics

Morocco’s multiparty system operates within boundaries set by the constitutional framework and the monarchy’s ultimate authority. Elections are regularly held and produce alternation in government, with the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM), the Istiqlal Party, the National Rally of Independents (RNI), and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) among the major formations competing for parliamentary representation.

The electoral calendar includes the September 2026 municipal elections, which will test the balance of forces ahead of subsequent national elections. Political parties focus on local service delivery, economic management, and social issues, while avoiding challenges to core regime prerogatives.

The party system has fragmented in recent years, with coalition governments requiring complex negotiations and producing mixed records of legislative accomplishment. This fragmentation can be read as a sign of pluralism or as a mechanism that disperses political energy while preserving ultimate authority with the monarchy.

4. Regional Position: Strategic Realignment and Diplomatic Momentum

4.1 The Western Sahara Breakthrough: EU Consensus and International Alignment

The most significant diplomatic development for Morocco in early 2026 is the emergence of unified European Union position on the Moroccan Sahara. For the first time, all 27 EU member states aligned behind Morocco’s Autonomy Plan as the sole basis for a political resolution, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2797 . This shift was described in Rabat as a major diplomatic breakthrough and the culmination of sustained diplomacy at the highest level .

The Association Council meeting, the first at this level since 2019, was widely viewed as a political relaunch of relations at a time marked by global instability, regional security threats, and complex geopolitical dynamics . Both sides indicated readiness to move beyond traditional neighbourhood policies toward an alliance built on shared interests and long-term strategic alignment .

The Council highlighted the resilience of bilateral ties in the face of recent political, legal, and diplomatic challenges, projecting unity and stressing that attempts to undermine the relationship had instead strengthened cooperation and deepened mutual trust . This resilience was reflected notably in the revised agricultural agreement—already in force since October—which explicitly includes Morocco’s southern provinces in EU tariff preferences .

This diplomatic momentum extends beyond Europe. The Stimson Center notes that “Morocco is increasingly shaping international peace efforts not through grandstanding, but through law, institutions, and follow-through,” with credibility stemming from “sustained respect for international legal processes, administrative continuity, and an ability to implement agreements where others falcon” .

4.2 The Israel-Morocco Strategic Axis

The definitive turning point in Morocco’s strategic realignment came on January 2, 2026, when a high-level delegation from the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces arrived in Tel Aviv to sign the 2026 Military Action Plan . Finalized during the third meeting of the Israel-Morocco Joint Military Committee, the agreement represents a fundamental shift from transactional arms deals to institutionalized, long-term force development .

Unlike tactical purchases of the past, the plan structures military dialogue, joint industrial projects, and strategic planning throughout the year, allowing both nations to align their defence architectures as regional risks evolve . Israel now views Morocco as its most vital security ally on the continent—a strategic gateway where Middle Eastern technology meets African security challenges .

Analysis from Ynetnews describes this as “Functional Sovereignty”—a pragmatic, cold-eyed prioritization of technological and military superiority over traditional, often paralyzed ideological blocs of the Arab world . The cornerstone of this new manual is an “assumed alignment” with Israel that has matured from diplomatic flirtation into hard-power reconfiguration, positioning Morocco as the West’s primary security anchor in North Africa .

The necessity of this strategic axis was underscored by a major intelligence breakthrough in post-Assad Syria, where the new leadership in Damascus reportedly rejected requests from Algiers to release approximately 500 detainees, including an Algerian brigadier general and soldiers from the Algerian army and Polisario militias captured fighting on behalf of pro-Iranian forces . During investigations, the foreign fighters allegedly admitted to receiving training from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah .

This “Syrian smoking gun” has provided what Rabat sees as definitive evidence of the Iran-Hezbollah-Polisario axis it has long warned against, vindicating Morocco’s 2018 decision to sever ties with Tehran and accelerating the diplomatic marginalization of the separatist movement .

4.3 Defence Modernization and Strategic Posture

The 2026 fiscal year highlights a stark divergence in defence philosophies between Rabat and Algiers. Morocco has embraced a “smart power” strategy, allocating $17.1 billion toward qualitative modernization and the creation of a domestic defence industry through joint ventures with Israeli firms such as BlueBird Aero Systems .

This approach emphasizes technological superiority, domestic industrial capacity, and integration with allied forces rather than sheer quantitative mass. The focus on joint ventures and technology transfer aims to build sustainable indigenous capabilities rather than perpetual dependence on foreign suppliers.

Algeria, by contrast, has doubled down on conventional attrition, committing a record $25 billion to its military—20.6 per cent of the national budget and nearly 9 per cent of GDP . The spending exceeds Algeria’s combined education and health budgets and is financed through a central government deficit surpassing 10 per cent .

As Algiers remains tethered to Cold War-era Russian hardware and Iranian-aligned proxies, Rabat is harvesting the dividends of its strategic pivot, consolidating its position as the emerging regional hegemon .

4.4 Euro-Mediterranean Relations: From Neighbourhood to Strategic Alliance

Morocco’s relationship with the European Union has entered a new strategic phase, signaled by the 15th session of the Morocco-EU Association Council in Brussels . Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita underscored “positive and promising prospects” for the partnership, emphasizing Morocco’s long-standing position as the EU’s leading trading partner in both Africa and the southern Mediterranean .

Morocco, Bourita noted, continues to offer stability, predictability, and strategic reliability at a time of heightened global uncertainty, reinforcing the Kingdom’s role as a critical partner for the EU . The relationship is presented as a benchmark for Europe’s engagement with the wider region .

In a key intervention during the meeting, Bourita called for a qualitative evolution of the partnership, proposing a shift from a neighbourhood-based approach to a strategic alliance . Morocco’s vision for the next phase includes regular senior-level political dialogue; joint investments in priority sectors such as industry, digital technology, and green energy; and mechanisms for early consultation that would allow Morocco to contribute to EU decision-making on shared issues .

He stressed that any expanded partnership must be built on balanced governance, mutual recognition, and predictability . The tone from Brussels suggests a transition toward a relationship defined by strategic interdependence rather than assistance, and by long-term vision rather than transactional cooperation .

Priority areas identified include migration governance, security collaboration, and counterterrorism, with the EU acknowledging Morocco’s active diplomatic role within multilateral forums such as the UN Human Rights Council . Discussions touched on major global issues including the situations in Ukraine, the Middle East, Gaza, and the Sahel, with Gaza described as a priority matter .

Going forward, Morocco and the EU agreed to pursue a more ambitious roadmap, including establishing regular high-level political dialogue to guide the partnership; launching negotiations toward a New Enhanced Strategic Partnership covering security, industry, digital transformation and investment; and formal recognition of Morocco’s distinct role as a regional and continental stabilizing force .

4.5 African Engagement and Multilateral Diplomacy

Morocco’s reintegration into the African Union in 2017, after decades of absence over the Western Sahara dispute, has been followed by active engagement across the continent. The Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline project, though facing implementation challenges, “powers new vision for Africa’s energy unity” , reflecting Morocco’s aspiration to serve as an energy bridge between West Africa and Europe.

The country has also assumed leadership roles in multilateral forums. Morocco took the rotating presidency of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva in February 2026, with Ambassador Omar Hilale chairing the UN forum through March 13 . Analysts cited by Hespress said Morocco’s presidency “carries symbolic and political significance, reflecting growing international confidence in Rabat and reinforcing its standing in multilateral diplomacy” .

Moroccan officials intend to use the month-long presidency to signal renewed commitment to effective multilateral action grounded in shared responsibility and political will, with the stated aim of supporting a just and lasting peace . Analysts said Rabat will seek to push the forum beyond years of institutional paralysis, framing the presidency as a strategic role that places Morocco closer to the architecture of international security debates .

Sabri El Haou, a Moroccan specialist in international law, told Hespress the presidency highlights “the dynamism of Moroccan diplomacy at global, African Union and UN levels” and pointed to an expected high-level ministerial segment under Morocco’s chairmanship as an indicator of diplomatic weight .

The Stimson Center notes Morocco’s broader engagement across regional files, including its active role in Middle East peace efforts and Atlantic Initiatives .

4.6 Relations with Algeria: Managed Rivalry

The rivalry with Algeria remains the most consequential bilateral relationship in Morocco’s immediate neighbourhood, though direct engagement is limited and mediated through international forums. The dispute over Western Sahara defines the relationship, with both countries supporting opposing parties and maintaining competing regional alignments.

The Stimson Center notes a U.S.-led diplomatic effort to bring Morocco and Algeria into the same orbit for Western Sahara-related talks, emphasizing stakes for regional stability and international alignment . However, the deep distrust between the two capitals, compounded by their divergent strategic partnerships (Morocco with the US/Israel/West, Algeria with Russia/Iran), limits prospects for rapid breakthrough.

The military balance between the two countries has shifted in qualitative terms, with Morocco’s emphasis on technology and domestic industry potentially offsetting Algeria’s quantitative advantages. However, neither side seeks direct military confrontation, and the rivalry is expressed primarily through diplomatic competition, arms procurement, and positioning on regional files.

4.7 Relations with the United States and Global Powers

Morocco’s relationship with the United States has deepened across multiple dimensions, building on the 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara under the Trump administration and sustained under subsequent US policy. The FBI conducted a field study of the Moroccan security model in early January 2026, with a senior delegation led by Douglas Olson and Kevin Kowalski focusing on the African Security Cooperation Center in Salé .

For the FBI, the Salé center serves as a functional blueprint for the 2026 World Cup, demonstrating that Morocco has evolved into an architect of global security governance . The collaboration reflects a mature transatlantic partnership aimed at securing the Atlantic flank against regional instability .

Relations with China have expanded through economic cooperation, investment, and infrastructure projects, with Morocco serving as a gateway for Chinese engagement with Africa and Europe. The Chinese Commerce Ministry’s website maintains active coverage of Moroccan economic developments , reflecting the importance of bilateral commercial ties.

Morocco’s strategic diversification ensures that it maintains relationships across the great power spectrum while avoiding dependence on any single partner. This positioning enhances its policy space and reinforces its role as a reliable interlocutor capable of engaging with multiple actors.

5. Conclusion: Morocco’s Regional Standing and Future Trajectory

Morocco in early 2026 presents a profile of strategic confidence and diplomatic momentum. The economic picture is one of sustained growth driven by diversified sectors, anchored by credible fiscal policy and supported by favourable inflation dynamics. The political system maintains stability through institutional mechanisms that blend monarchical authority with responsive governance, even as youth mobilization highlights persistent gaps in public service delivery. The foreign policy landscape is characterized by significant breakthroughs: unified EU support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan on Western Sahara, deepened strategic partnership with Israel, enhanced security cooperation with the United States, and active leadership in multilateral forums.

This combination of economic performance, political stability, and diplomatic achievement positions Morocco as the emerging regional hegemon in North Africa. The contrast with neighbours is instructive: Algeria, despite larger military spending and hydrocarbon wealth, remains constrained by economic dependence, political rigidity, and diplomatic isolation on Western Sahara. Libya’s fragmentation prevents it from exercising regional influence. Egypt’s focus remains oriented toward the Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf.

The sustainability of Morocco’s trajectory depends on several factors. Economically, the country must continue diversifying beyond agriculture, which remains vulnerable to climatic variation, and ensure that growth translates into sufficient job creation for its young population. The IMF’s emphasis on human capital investment—health, education, skills development—points to the foundation for long-term competitiveness.

Politically, the monarchy must manage the tensions inherent in the “two-speed Morocco” narrative: impressive national-level indicators coexist with local service delivery failures that generate protest. The Gen Z 212 movement demonstrates that youth are organized, connected, and capable of mobilizing around specific grievances. The government’s responsiveness to media concerns, as illustrated by the withdrawal of the press committee decree, suggests capacity for tactical adjustment, but deeper investments in public services will be required to address underlying discontent.

Strategically, Morocco must navigate the risks associated with its realignment. The deepening partnership with Israel, while delivering concrete military and economic benefits, generates domestic sensitivities and could become a target for opponents. The rivalry with Algeria shows no sign of abating, and while Morocco has the diplomatic momentum, Algeria retains significant capacity to complicate Moroccan interests. The US political landscape, with potential shifts in administration, introduces uncertainty about the durability of Washington’s support.

Yet Morocco has demonstrated sustained capacity for strategic adaptation. The monarchy has navigated colonial occupation, Cold War rivalries, Arab Spring pressures, and regional turbulence while maintaining institutional continuity and gradually expanding policy space. The current configuration—economic diversification, political stability, diplomatic realignment—represents the latest iteration of a proven adaptive capacity.

The Stimson Center’s characterization captures the essence of Morocco’s contemporary positioning: a state that shapes international outcomes “not through grandstanding, but through law, institutions, and follow-through” . In a region marked by volatility, fragmentation, and uncertainty, Morocco’s combination of stability and strategic purpose positions it as a distinctive and increasingly influential actor—not only within North Africa but across the Mediterranean, Africa, and the broader multilateral system.

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